Performance of External Agricultural Trade during the Last Two Decades in Afghanistan

Abstract (in English)

The study analysed the performance of external agricultural trade in Afghanistan during last two decades (2000-2019). The study was based on the secondary data collected from FAOSTAT official website on imports/exports of different agricultural commodities in value terms (US$). The study aims to assess the performance, growth rate and instability of exports and imports of key agricultural commodities viz. cereals, fruits, vegetables, pulses and total agricultural products. In order to examine the performance in addition to descriptive analysis the exponential form of growth function (CAGR) and Cuddy-Della-Valle-Index (CDVI) were also applied and t statistics was used to test the significance of compound growth rate. In fact Afghanistan is well known globally for its variety of fruits (fresh and dried) and vegetables production and exports, but political disturbance in the country has adversely affected the external agricultural trade due to emergence of threat of business risk, also caused a damage to the country’s infrastructure and irrigation system, which further resulted in decline in agricultural production, turning a country into a major importer of cereals, fruits & vegetables that was once approaching to self–sufficiency in crop production. The analysis revealed that over the period the performance of external agricultural trade, particularly of exports had grown significantly. Also, the external agricultural trade, though, was unstable during the period, but the instability was varied depended on the type of the commodities. This calls for implementation of well thought agricultural development policy under the direction of a committed leadership.